Homicide mobility triangles: a spatial typology for understanding violence in the Uruguayan capital

Abstract

After years of stability, in 2012 the homicide rate in Montevideo began to rise. By 2018 it had nearly doubled and there is still nothing to suggest that homicides could soon return to their pre-2012 numbers. Although this has sparked much public discussion and media coverage, systematic studies of the phenomenon are scarce so far. Therefore, there is a severe lack of evidence on the nature of the problem on which to base policies to address it. This article explores patterns of homicides both during the period before the increase and in the years after, seeking to understand the factors behind the change. The data are analyzed from a social ecology perspective, simultaneously considering the location of homicide events, their victims and their perpetrators. Thus, perhaps for the first time in the regional literature, the concept of "homicide mobility triangles" is introduced. The findings suggest that the increase in homicides cannot be attributed to traditional crime patterns in the local scene (such as homicides related to robberies, domestic or due to spontaneous altercations between acquaintances), but that there could be new criminal developments in the city. Specifically, a problem of violence between criminal groups or gangs seems to be at the heart  of the growth in homicides, with the distribution of drugs to the end consumer likely being the driving force behind the formation of criminal groups and wars between them.